Race details
California Governor Primary
Candidates
Odds last updated May 13th, 7:08 PM
Xavier Becerra (D)
49% chance to win
Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California attorney general; surged to roughly 13% after Eric Swalwell's exit, pitching executive experience and Latino outreach in a divided Democratic field.
Vote totals pending
Steve Hilton (R)
26% chance to win
Former Fox News host and entrepreneur; received President Trump's endorsement on April 6 and leads top-two polling at around 17% on a populist-conservative message.
Vote totals pending
Tom Steyer (D)
25% chance to win
Billionaire activist and former presidential candidate; focuses on climate, inequality, and grassroots organizing, with the resources to self-fund a late push.
Vote totals pending
Chad Bianco (R)
7.3% chance to win
Riverside County sheriff running on public safety, immigration enforcement, and opposition to Sacramento Democrats; competing with Hilton for the GOP lane.
Vote totals pending
Katie Porter (D)
1.5% chance to win
Former Orange County congresswoman known for oversight hearings and consumer-protection messaging with her trademark whiteboard.
Vote totals pending
Why this race matters
Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited, leaving an extremely crowded field. California uses a nonpartisan "top-two" primary: all candidates run on one ballot and the top two advance regardless of party. President Trump endorsed Steve Hilton on April 6, 2026, consolidating much of the GOP base behind the former Fox News host, though Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco remains close in polling and the state GOP convention deadlocked between them. The Democratic field has been reshaped by two April exits — Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations, and former state Controller Betty Yee withdrew on April 20 citing flagging support — pushing remaining Democratic voters toward billionaire Tom Steyer, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (who jumped to ~13% post-Swalwell), and former Representative Katie Porter. The latest Emerson poll (Apr 14–15) has Hilton 17%, Bianco 14%, Steyer 14%, Becerra 10%, Porter 10%, with ~23% undecided. The earlier scenario of two Republicans locking Democrats out of November has receded since Trump's endorsement, but a one-Republican / one-Democrat runoff remains highly contested.
How this context is used
California’s top-two primary and very large electorate create a different strategic environment than party-nomination systems.
These indicators are educational context for understanding turnout environments and campaign strategy. They are not deterministic predictors of who will win.
Profile updated: March 27th
Demographic context
2
Candidates advancing from primary to general election (top-two)
California uses a top-two open primary where all candidates appear on one ballot and the top two advance.
Why it matters: Primary strategy focuses on broad vote accumulation rather than only intra-party competition.
Limitations: Primary format does not by itself determine who advances or wins.
Source: California Secretary of State - Top Two Candidates Open Primary (State of California) · Vintage: Current election administration guidance
39.4M
Estimated population, July 1, 2024 (Census Bureau; rounded)
40.3%
Hispanic or Latino share, July 1, 2023 estimate (QuickFacts)
California’s statewide electorate is among the largest in the country, spanning diverse regional and demographic blocs.
Why it matters: Statewide campaigns must balance region-specific messages within a broad coalition framework.
Limitations: Large electorate size does not imply a specific electoral outcome.
Source: California QuickFacts (U.S. Census Bureau) · Vintage: QuickFacts and population estimates