Race details
California Governor Primary
Candidates
Steve Hilton (R)
Former Fox host and entrepreneur; leads the small Republican field in early top-two polling in a crowded ballot.
Vote totals pending
Eric Swalwell (D)
Bay Area congressman with national-security committee experience; pitches pragmatism in a fractured Democratic pack.
Vote totals pending
Katie Porter (D)
Former Orange County congresswoman known for oversight hearings and consumer-protection messaging with her trademark whiteboard.
Vote totals pending
Tom Steyer (D)
Billionaire activist and former presidential candidate; focuses on climate, inequality, and grassroots organizing.
Vote totals pending
Why this race matters
Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited and will be leaving office. California uses a nonpartisan "top-two" primary: all candidates on one ballot; top two advance. Over a dozen major names. Republican Steve Hilton (former Fox News host) leads polls at 17%. Democrats are split: United States Representative Eric Swalwell (14%), United States Representative Katie Porter (10%), and Tom Steyer (9%).
How this context is used
California’s top-two primary and very large electorate create a different strategic environment than party-nomination systems.
These indicators are educational context for understanding turnout environments and campaign strategy. They are not deterministic predictors of who will win.
Profile updated: March 27th
Demographic context
2
Candidates advancing from primary to general election (top-two)
California uses a top-two open primary where all candidates appear on one ballot and the top two advance.
Why it matters: Primary strategy focuses on broad vote accumulation rather than only intra-party competition.
Limitations: Primary format does not by itself determine who advances or wins.
Source: California Secretary of State - Top Two Candidates Open Primary (State of California) · Vintage: Current election administration guidance
39.4M
Estimated population, July 1, 2024 (Census Bureau; rounded)
40.3%
Hispanic or Latino share, July 1, 2023 estimate (QuickFacts)
California’s statewide electorate is among the largest in the country, spanning diverse regional and demographic blocs.
Why it matters: Statewide campaigns must balance region-specific messages within a broad coalition framework.
Limitations: Large electorate size does not imply a specific electoral outcome.
Source: California QuickFacts (U.S. Census Bureau) · Vintage: QuickFacts and population estimates