US Senate & governor primaries

Notable upcoming races — election tracker

Browse upcoming Senate and governor primaries with short candidate bios. House and Senate control outlooks live on House control odds and Senate control odds. For concluded contests and vote totals, see recent notable races. On election day, open live election results on US Election Tracker.

Notable Upcoming Races

Georgia Governor Republican Primary

May 19th

Candidates

Odds last updated July 18th, 9:40 PM

Rick Jackson(R)
99.9% chance to win
Burt Jones(R)
0.1% chance to win
Brad Raffensperger(R)
0.1% chance to win

Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, leaving a crowded Republican primary. Businessman Rick Jackson has led recent polling as a heavily self-funded outsider pitching executive experience and tax cuts; Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones carries Donald Trump’s endorsement and strong grassroots ties; Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stresses continuity and election-administration experience after national clashes with the Trump campaign in 2020. If no one clears 50% on May 19, the top two advance to a June 16 runoff.

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California Governor Primary

June 2nd

Candidates

Odds last updated July 18th, 9:40 PM

Xavier Becerra(D)
99.9% chance to win
Steve Hilton(R)
0.2% chance to win
Chad Bianco(R)
0.1% chance to win
Tom Steyer(D)
0.1% chance to win
Katie Porter(D)
0.1% chance to win

Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited, leaving an extremely crowded field. California uses a nonpartisan "top-two" primary: all candidates run on one ballot and the top two advance regardless of party. President Trump endorsed Steve Hilton on April 6, 2026, consolidating much of the GOP base behind the former Fox News host, though Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco remains close in polling and the state GOP convention deadlocked between them. The Democratic field has been reshaped by two April exits — Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations, and former state Controller Betty Yee withdrew on April 20 citing flagging support — pushing remaining Democratic voters toward billionaire Tom Steyer, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (who jumped to ~13% post-Swalwell), and former Representative Katie Porter. The latest Emerson poll (Apr 14–15) has Hilton 17%, Bianco 14%, Steyer 14%, Becerra 10%, Porter 10%, with ~23% undecided. The earlier scenario of two Republicans locking Democrats out of November has receded since Trump's endorsement, but a one-Republican / one-Democrat runoff remains highly contested.

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Arizona Governor Republican Primary

July 21st

Candidates

Odds last updated July 18th, 9:40 PM

Andy Biggs(R)
99.3% chance to win
David Schweikert(R)
0.1% chance to win

The GOP nominee will face Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in November. After housing developer Karrin Taylor Robson suspended her campaign, the race consolidated around two U.S. representatives: Freedom Caucus-aligned Andy Biggs with Donald Trump’s endorsement, versus Phoenix-area fiscal conservative David Schweikert, who has repeatedly won competitive suburban districts. The outcome tests MAGA strength against a more establishment-conservative lane in a premier swing state.

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Florida Governor Republican Primary

August 18th

Candidates

Odds last updated July 18th, 9:40 PM

Byron Donalds(R)
95.9% chance to win
James Fishback(R)
3.2% chance to win
Jay Collins(R)
1.5% chance to win
Paul Renner(R)
0.4% chance to win

Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited, so the race is a battle to see who inherits his "Florida Blueprint." United States Representative Byron Donalds is the frontrunner with President Trump's endorsement. Challengers include investor James Fishback, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, and former House Speaker Paul Renner. Matt Gaetz declined a run, which further solidified Donalds' lead.

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