Race details
Georgia Governor Republican Primary
Candidates
Odds last updated May 13th, 7:08 PM
Rick Jackson (R)
54% chance to win
Healthcare executive and self-funded candidate running on business experience, conservative economic messaging, and major broadcast spending in the MAGA lane.
Vote totals pending
Burt Jones (R)
43% chance to win
Lieutenant governor with strong ties to Donald Trump’s orbit; bids to hold the GOP coalition Kemp built.
Vote totals pending
Brad Raffensperger (R)
3.6% chance to win
Secretary of state nationally known for resisting 2020 overturn pressure; stresses election procedures and rule of law.
Vote totals pending
Why this race matters
Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, leaving a crowded Republican primary. Businessman Rick Jackson has led recent polling as a heavily self-funded outsider pitching executive experience and tax cuts; Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones carries Donald Trump’s endorsement and strong grassroots ties; Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stresses continuity and election-administration experience after national clashes with the Trump campaign in 2020. If no one clears 50% on May 19, the top two advance to a June 16 runoff.
How this context is used
Georgia statewide races often center on turnout differences across Atlanta-area suburbs, other metros, and non-metro regions.
These indicators are educational context for understanding turnout environments and campaign strategy. They are not deterministic predictors of who will win.
Profile updated: March 27th
Demographic context
11.2M
Estimated population, July 1, 2024 (Census Bureau; rounded)
~5.2%
Population change, April 1, 2020–July 1, 2024 (Census Bureau; rounded)
Georgia has experienced notable population change in the 2020s, especially in major metro regions.
Why it matters: Changing metro share can affect turnout priorities and persuasion targeting.
Limitations: Population change is contextual and not a deterministic predictor.
Source: State Population Totals and Components of Change (U.S. Census Bureau) · Vintage: 2020s population estimates
Georgia election administration guidance defines the procedural framework for primary and general elections.
Why it matters: Calendar and process constraints shape campaign operations and voter-contact timing.
Limitations: Procedural rules do not indicate candidate-level performance.
Source: Georgia Secretary of State - Elections (State of Georgia) · Vintage: Current state elections guidance