Congress & governor control odds
Implied probabilities from Kalshi trading: House and Senate marginals are derived from the four-way “balance of power” combo; governor outlook uses mutually exclusive buckets for which party holds more statehouses. Maps show current delegations and governors (not projected winners).
Quotes as of May 2, 2026, 10:46 PM (server fetch / refresh time).
US House
Which party is favored to hold a majority in the House after the midterms (marginal from combo markets).
Current delegation map
Blue: more Democratic seats in that state; red: more Republican seats; purple: even split. Totals for the House use the seed snapshot (212 D + 1 I caucus, 217 R, 5 vacant).
US Senate
Which party is favored to hold a majority in the Senate after the midterms (marginal from the same combo).
Current delegation map
Blue: both senators Democratic caucus; red: both Republican; purple: split. Current chamber tally: 47 D / 53 R.
Governors
Outlook for which party holds more governorships nationwide after the midterms (tie is explicit).
- More D governors ~57.8%
- Tie ~10.1%
- More R governors ~32.1%
Current governor party map
Blue: Democratic governor; red: Republican (including states where the governor affiliates as Republican while some local parties differ).
State of the Nation has live chamber scorecards and related maps; this page focuses on Kalshi control outlook plus geographic context.