Race details
Michigan U.S. Senate
Candidates
Odds last updated September 7th, 7:39 PM
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
62% chance to win
Physician and former Detroit health director; won the Democratic nomination on a Medicare-for-All and affordability platform despite an 8-to-1 spending disadvantage and establishment opposition.
Vote totals pending
Mike Rogers (R)
39% chance to win
Former congressman and House Intelligence chair; the 2024 GOP Senate nominee who lost to Elissa Slotkin by under a point, running again as the party's consensus choice.
Vote totals pending
Why this race matters
Open seat (Senator Gary Peters retiring). Progressive physician Abdul El-Sayed won a bruising August 4 Democratic primary over establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens, and now faces Republican Mike Rogers, the former congressman who narrowly lost Michigan's other Senate seat in 2024. A top-tier battleground that could decide Senate control.