Texas
Texas U.S. Senate
Candidates
Odds last updated October 22nd, 5:34 PM ET
James Talarico (D)
67.5% chance to win
State representative and former teacher pitching generational change and a broad, faith-inflected general-election message in a state Democrats have not won statewide since 1994.
Vote totals pending
Ken Paxton (R)
32.5% chance to win
Sitting Texas attorney general and MAGA-aligned figure; won the GOP nomination in a landslide runoff after President Trump's endorsement pushed aside John Cornyn.
Vote totals pending
Why this race matters
Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) beat four-term incumbent John Cornyn in a May runoff after a late Trump endorsement, then faces Democratic state representative James Talarico. Republicans are defending a seat that is normally safe, but Paxton's legal baggage has Democrats hoping Talarico's crossover pitch can make Texas competitive at the top of the ticket.